performance analysis

While producing accurate forecasts is a main objective of the forecasting process, obtaining insights into the data and the forecasting problem may be just as important. Insights gained from analyzing what has been learned by the system can be used in a continuous cycle of improving the forecasting setup and analyzing the behavior of the forecasting system. The Forecast Performance Analysis component incorporates several techniques for analyzing developed models.

First, the degree to which each input has been used can be calculated. Secondly, an analysis can be made of how the input information is used in the forecasts and how long-term temporal patterns play a role. Thirdly, the residual errors of the forecasts can be analyzed, and related to important inputs or time points. The results of this analysis can be used to identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of the forecasting system and point out areas where improvement is possible.